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Delta Variant Fueling U.K. Covid Surge Could Become Dominant U.S. Strain. Here Are The Places Most At Risk.

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This article is more than 2 years old.
Updated Jun 15, 2021, 08:12am EDT

Topline

The highly contagious and possibly vaccine resistant Delta variant responsible for the overwhelming majority of new U.K. Covid-19 cases and has prompted ministers to delay England’s anticipated reopening is starting to spread rapidly in parts of the U.S. and could quickly become the dominant strain, risking a similar surge and a wave of hospitalizations as vaccination rates in some states remain stubbornly low

Key Facts

Data suggests the Delta variant, first identified in India and also known as B.1.617.2, carries a greater risk of hospitalization, is around 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (U.K.) strain and is more resistant to vaccines, particularly when only one dose has been given.

Officials say the variant is responsible for more than 90% of the U.K.’s Covid-19 cases (as high as 96% in England), which have soared since the variant replaced the then-dominant Alpha strain and pushed the government to prolong pandemic restrictions expected to lift next month. 

The variant is already responsible for more than 6% of new infections across the U.S., according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, though this figure rises as high as 18% for Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

Experts, including former FDA head Scott Gottlieb, point to the variant’s rapid growth—Gottlieb said it’s doubling every two weeks—as evidence it will eventually become the dominant strain in the U.S. 

Gottlieb said areas where people are either unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated are at the greatest risk of new outbreaks, and the president’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has urged everyone to make sure they are fully vaccinated in light of the risks the new variant poses.  

According to data collated by the New York Times, there are still 26 states that have not given half their population at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine, with Mississippi, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho failing to reach even 40%. 

Key Background

A more infectious and dangerous strain of Covid-19 places renewed importance on widespread and complete vaccination. The U.K. concerns over a third wave surface despite it being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, having delivered at least one dose to around 60% of the population. This is roughly 10% more than the U.S. average and the countries have roughly equivalent proportions (43-44%) of people fully vaccinated. Unlike the Alpha strain, which is the dominant strain in the U.S., evidence indicates a much lower level of protection for just one shot for Delta. The finding has prompted the U.K. to condense its elongated vaccination schedule in order to ensure people are fully protected.   

What To Watch For

Combatting vaccine hesitancy, which is relatively low in the U.K., is likely to take on renewed importance in the U.S. should the variant spread. Recent polls indicate 31% of Americans to be unwilling or uncertain about getting a vaccine, rates that have not significantly changed in months. 

Tangent

France’s health minister said the Delta variant makes up around 2-4% of cases in the country, a much higher figure than previously admitted and around where the U.K. was three or four weeks ago.

Further Reading

Fauci Is ‘Concerned’ About States With Low Vaccination Rates—Here Are The Ones With The Lowest (Forbes)

Here Are The Biggest Groups That Are Still Refusing The Covid-19 Vaccine, Poll Finds (Forbes)

Highly Contagious Delta Variant Now Makes Up 91% Of U.K.’s New Covid Cases—And Is ‘Poised To Take Hold’ In Europe, WHO Warns (Forbes)

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