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1 In 150 Americans Probably Have Coronavirus ‘Right Now,’ Says Ex-FDA Chief

This article is more than 3 years old.
Updated Jul 10, 2020, 01:03pm EDT

TOPLINE

As the U.S. already posts record numbers for daily confirmed cases of Covid-19, former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb projects that the actual number of infections are actually far higher, telling CNBC Friday that as many as one in 150 people in the United States likely “have the infection right now.”

KEY FACTS

The surge of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has resulted in record numbers of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting a new high of 64,771 new confirmed cases on July 9.

The CDC and MIT researchers have projected that the number of actual coronavirus infections is in actuality ten to 11.8 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, leading Gottlieb to estimate Friday that “we must have well over 700,000 actual infections a day.”

“The prevalence of actual infection in the country right now must be pretty high, it must be in the order of like one in 150, one in 175 people have the infection right now,” Gottlieb said, noting that when there were only 20,000 confirmed cases a day, “the conventional wisdom was the prevalence was one in 200 people.”

Gottlieb’s projection of 700,000 daily infections is a marked increase over what the former FDA head previously said as recently as last week, as Gottlieb estimated on July 1 that there were likely 400,000 to 500,000 actual infections each day.

Though President Donald Trump has falsely claimed the surge in coronavirus cases is due to increased testing, Gottlieb has argued that the U.S. still does not have enough testing capacity to capture the country’s actual number of coronavirus infections.

Key Background

Cases of Covid-19 are rising in the majority of U.S. states and territories, including widespread outbreaks in hard-hit states like Florida, Texas and Arizona. The worsening outbreaks have renewed some of the struggles the country faced in the early stages of the pandemic, with hospital workers once again reporting shortages of personal protective equipment to protect themselves against Covid-19. Though testing capacity in the U.S. has ramped up since the pandemic began in March, areas with larger outbreaks are reporting that the demand for testing has overwhelmed local testing infrastructure, resulting in long lines, tests quickly running out and delays in receiving results. Los Angeles, which previously encouraged all residents to get tested regardless of whether they had been exposed to Covid-19 or were showing symptoms, had to walk back its previously open testing policy, with officials now prioritizing those showing symptoms, in a high-risk work environment or with a confirmed exposure to Covid-19.

What To Watch For

As the coronavirus has surged across the southern and western parts of the country, the Northeast, which was the hardest-hit region at the start of the pandemic, has seen its cases sharply decline. Gottlieb suggested Friday that as the pandemic continues to “get worse before it gets better” in states outside the Northeast, leaders in states like New York and New Jersey could take stronger action to protect their states from infection being brought in by out-of-state travelers. Gottlieb predicted states will “get more aggressive on enforcing” quarantine requirements for those coming in from hard-hit areas—which are hard to enforce—including by potentially “trac[ing]

” and “monitor[ing]” travelers who fly into the area. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see that start to happen,” Gottlieb said. 

Further Reading

Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates as many as 1 in 150 people in U.S. are infected with coronavirus (CNBC)

Ex-FDA Chief: U.S. May Actually Have Over 400,000 New Coronavirus Cases Per Day, But Not Testing Enough To Show It (Forbes)

Months Into Virus Crisis, U.S. Cities Still Lack Testing Capacity (New York Times)

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